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dc.contributor.authorSatoh, Yusuke
dc.contributor.authorKahil, Taher
dc.contributor.authorByers, Edward
dc.contributor.authorBurek, Peter
dc.contributor.authorFischer, Günther
dc.contributor.authorTramberend, Sylvia
dc.contributor.authorGreve, Peter
dc.contributor.authorFlörke, Martina
dc.contributor.authorEisner, Stephanie
dc.contributor.authorHanasaki, Naota
dc.contributor.authorMagnuszewski, Piotr
dc.contributor.authorNava, Luzma Fabiola
dc.contributor.authorCosgrove, William
dc.contributor.authorLangan, Simon
dc.contributor.authorWada, Yoshihide
dc.identifier.citationEarth's Future. 2017, 5 (7), 823-852.nb_NO
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water sup- ply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30–40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6–2 bil- lion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.nb_NO
dc.publisherJohn Wiley and Sons Inc.nb_NO
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.subjectwater scarcitynb_NO
dc.subjectsocioeconomic developmentnb_NO
dc.subjectclimate changenb_NO
dc.subjecthydro‐economic analysisnb_NO
dc.titleMulti-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiativenb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
dc.rights.holder© 2017 The Authorsnb_NO
dc.source.journalEarth's Futurenb_NO

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal
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