The distribution of the endemic plant Primula scandinavica, at local and national scales, in changing mountainous environments

Abstract

Primula scandinavica is endemic to Norway and Sweden and populations are in decline due to changes in land use. Future climate change might have an additive effect on its distribution. To predict the future distribution of P. scandinavica, its potential suitable habitats with regard to land use and climate need to be investigated. We have generated species distribution models (SDMs) both for local (Eastern Jotunheimen) and national (Norway) scales and projected future distribution based on predicted climate and land use change. The best SDM at a national scale includes climate (temperature, precipitation, number of snow days) and elevation. The future potential distribution is projected to expand in the mountainous areas in the south and move north. At a local scale, the best SDM includes historic and present land use and livestock grazing pressure. Future distribution in the studied mountainous area is projected to decrease with continued abandonment of grazing.