Effects of consumer cohorts and age on meat expenditures in the United States

Abstract

Meat demand is likely influenced by the birth cohort and age of the individual. In this study, we examine the demand for beef, pork, poultry, and other meat in the United States using the 1984–2012 Consumer Expenditure Survey and the almost ideal demand system with the incorporation of age, period, and cohort (APC) effects. We find that the model with APC effects performs better than the models without APC effects. The results indicate that cohorts born in earlier time periods are expected to purchase significantly less poultry compared to cohorts born in later time periods, when they are measured at the same age. Over the life cycle, purchase of poultry is expected to increase with age while the opposite is true for red meat. We also find that the own‐price elasticity for beef is highest among the products examined, while the own‐price elasticity for other meat is lowest and the inclusion of APC effects increases the absolute value of the own‐price elasticities for beef, pork, and poultry, but reduces the own‐price elasticity for other meat. Our forecasts indicate that the aggregate poultry purchase will continue to increase until 2022, while the aggregate purchase of red meat will slightly increase until 2017, but will either decrease or stay at same level from year 2017 to 2022.